It seems that the powers that be, really do want a conflict with Russia. Despite all the talk, hyperbole, and bluster I cannot imagine that they intend to want anything more than a low-intensity, limited, and mostly hybrid kinetic conflict. One that enables a decade or more of massive spending and chest-thumping in Congress and a lot of "I told you so". Making Russia a scary enemy is politically expedient and very profitable to some elements. But in geopolitics, sometimes big talk and bluster backfire and the smack talker gets punched in the throat.
Russia is not gonna cross the Dnieper into Western Ukraine.
No amount of fear-mongering or sockpuppetry can make it so.
Putin just did a practice run-up to a RIP/TOA. It made the establishment IC guys happy, but y'all wrong, again.
Russia showed what could be/will be, if... pic.twitter.com/Q1qq63VC2K
— Barry Clark (@onlyBarryLClark) January 17, 2022
I believe the tweet to the left is technically true and aligns with the motivations and intentions of Russia going into this, but Russia is not the only actor in this with a vote.
Western intelligence agencies, their lackeys in the media, and all those with a worldview bias that forces them to view Russia in a particular light see things in a particualr way. What looks evermore likely as a false flag pretext might in fact be a false-false flag trick play done by the West - there are some that want a conflict just that badly.
Also, no state actor has complete control of various militarized elements in eastern Ukraine, someone could escalate without permission.
I believe, based upon many factors, that Russia only intended to do a 19th Century show of force exercise and that eventually, it seeks complete sovereignty over territory east of the Dnieper. Putin was correct in his assessment of the fractured state of Europe and the NATO alliance. he knows his military has one major campaign in it. In terms of logistics and maintenance, he could not sustain a long major war. He may be many things, but he is no fool. If the situation in Ukraine pops off into something else, I will stand and die on my assessment that such an outcome was never Russia's intent or objective. If it happens, it will be via accident or machination (Western or Ukrainian).
I am not quibbling. I stand on what I said. Russia never intended to cross the Dnieper. What happens next is less in Russia's control and more in the hands of the warmongers. (do not give me the "Russia could pull its troops back" tell the US where to put troops, in Texas or Poland and see how the establishment reacts)
I am not going to delete the above tweet. I stand ready to suffer ridicule.
One thought on “It Seems “They” Want It”
Sanctions, talk of more sanctions, talk of individual sanctions on Russian government officials – turning off Nord Stream 2… as of 23 Feb 2022 Putin has zero disincentives not to take all of Ukraine and a lot to lose if he does not. He would be a fool at this juncture not to make moves to secure the entire place, even if he only occupies the east (and I do not judge him to be a fool)
Officials in the West knew this to be true when they leaned in so heavily. “What happens next is less in Russia’s control and more in the hands of the warmongers.” was true when I wrote it and it is true now. Redlines and hard talk (when the only skin the west has in the game is profit) are terrible negotiating positions (and again, we have to assume that someone in Western governments is not a total idiot and knew this also).
The West is not “saving” Ukraine with this tough talk and threats of financial ruin, it is sacrificing the place in order to spin up a new cold war (again for profit and political expediency).
The West has pushed, attempted to exploit, encroached upon, and meddled in the near abroad of Russia for 30 years. Sanctions now will only strengthen the resolve and make more direct and kinetic action more likely. The West painted Russia as an enemy in every national Security Strategy document since the Cold War, Putin just last year accepted the reality and modified his own to reflect the true situation. Russia will not kowtow from sanctions now, only emboldened.
I suspect that was the point, that is what leaders in the west want. It benefits the political elite, it profits the military, industrial, intelligence complex (MIIC) and it appeals to the base (https://barryclark.info/traitors-to-what/)
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