It seems that the powers that be, really do want a conflict with Russia. Despite all the talk, hyperbole, and bluster I cannot imagine that they intend to want anything more than a low-intensity, limited, and mostly hybrid kinetic conflict. One that enables a decade or more of massive spending and chest-thumping in Congress and a lot of "I told you so". Making Russia a scary enemy is politically expedient and very profitable to some elements. But in geopolitics, sometimes big talk and bluster backfire and the smack talker gets punched in the throat.
Russia is not gonna cross the Dnieper into Western Ukraine.
No amount of fear-mongering or sockpuppetry can make it so.
Putin just did a practice run-up to a RIP/TOA. It made the establishment IC guys happy, but y'all wrong, again.
Russia showed what could be/will be, if... pic.twitter.com/Q1qq63VC2K
— Barry Clark (@onlyBarryLClark) January 17, 2022
I believe the tweet to the left is technically true and aligns with the motivations and intentions of Russia going into this, but Russia is not the only actor in this with a vote.
Western intelligence agencies, their lackeys in the media, and all those with a worldview bias that forces them to view Russia in a particular light see things in a particualr way. What looks evermore likely as a false flag pretext might in fact be a false-false flag trick play done by the West - there are some that want a conflict just that badly.
Also, no state actor has complete control of various militarized elements in eastern Ukraine, someone could escalate without permission.
I believe, based upon many factors, that Russia only intended to do a 19th Century show of force exercise and that eventually, it seeks complete sovereignty over territory east of the Dnieper. Putin was correct in his assessment of the fractured state of Europe and the NATO alliance. he knows his military has one major campaign in it. In terms of logistics and maintenance, he could not sustain a long major war. He may be many things, but he is no fool. If the situation in Ukraine pops off into something else, I will stand and die on my assessment that such an outcome was never Russia's intent or objective. If it happens, it will be via accident or machination (Western or Ukrainian).
I am not quibbling. I stand on what I said. Russia never intended to cross the Dnieper. What happens next is less in Russia's control and more in the hands of the warmongers. (do not give me the "Russia could pull its troops back" tell the US where to put troops, in Texas or Poland and see how the establishment reacts)
I am not going to delete the above tweet. I stand ready to suffer ridicule.