This is, I believe, my last post on the current minutia of geopolitical happenings vis-à-vis Israel and Gaza and perhaps the Middle East at large. The time has passed it seems for long-form analysis of such events. With the obvious exception of various “think tanks” and western IC or MIIC adjacent groups and organizations that provide opioids for those that merely wish to consume variations of the official US and/or Israeli position with only minor variations. We of course have Telegram, an ocean of noise with bits and pieces of useful information floating in the stream. Twitter (X) is now merely a more refined version of that with various camps parsing the information that supports their priors and repackaging it to fit the wants of various audiences.
There was a moment, a brief moment, measured in hours perhaps, when the events of 7 October happened that the online BrOSINT ‘community’ seemed untethered from a unified position. Many in that group openly supported the burning of large swaths of US cities in the summer of 2020. Many consider themselves ‘decolonizers” and went in whole-hog in support of US goals in Ukraine simply because they were able to frame that event in that light, an evil empire and an ‘oppressed’ people. The fact that it was and remains a proxy conflict between two great powers is a point lost on them because of an accepted narrative. A perverse twisting of Tolkien’s work that turned the entire thing into a battle between Orcs and Elves, them never really understanding at all what Tolkien was truly writing. It did not hurt that some of the leading characters in the amateur OSINT world are literally on the payroll of Western governments, directly or more often indirectly. But for a moment these people were confused. Were they supposed to support the decolonization of oppressed people? The confusion was evident, just briefly until soon the group collectively noticed and toed the US/ISR line. All of their reporting, analysis, and hot takes at this point essentially reflect this now with little exception and the exceptions have been isolated from the group just as any realist was regarding the Russo-Ukraine War.
There remains of course a smattering of “Third-Worldists,” accelerationists, Marxists, Russophiles, and Axis of Resistance appreciators. If one were to pay too much attention to these accounts moment by moment it is possible to come away with the impression that “it is over, it has never been so over” for the West and that the Axis of Resistance will, at any moment coalesce into a formidable foe that will smite both Israel and the US in such a way that the empire will never recover. The only redeeming quality to their manifestations is there is something to the notion that the US empire is in sharp decline and is floundering. Most realists realize that it is entirely possible it could fall, but most realists also realize that declining empires have a way of marshaling strength up until the very end. The anime accounts (or anime adjacent) are often either Wojak Doomer bugmen (if they were truly born in the West), or Third Worldist accelerationists (much rarer although many pretend to not be from the West). It is hard for a realist of a certain age not to have affection for these types, on some level, It is also hard not to recognize their ignorance (despite deep learning) and naivete.
From both groups we find grifters. Whatever one thinks in a positive light about Musk it must be admitted that when he monetized posting for engagement he negatively altered the Twitterssphere. Where we once had to tolerate blue-check journos and recognized names pontificating we now have anons, quasi-anons and face-lords channeling Nathan Bedford Forrest’s maxim of “firstest with the mostest” positing, plagiarising, shallow-vetting, and hyperbolizing. For the conservatives that believe themselves “alternative” thinkers, we find alt-OSINTers that are Puso Disinfo Corporation approved and boosted. I have not checked but I am certain there is a Puso-like character serving the “needs” of centrists, progressives, and “alt-progressives” complete with their own approved and boosted grifters, some in alignment with the BrOSINT community in general, some standing out as “edgy” and different in opposition. It seemed easier back when we had only blue-check twits from the NYT’s posting things we could dismiss immediately simply because it came from blue-check twits working for the NYTs. Now we have grifters for every persuasion telling us exactly what we need to hear.
It remains to be seen if the events in Israel will become the thing or will remain just a thing. The real battle right now is between elites as Western oligarchs work to keep Middle Eastern oligarchs in line (often against the will of their people in this matter). The empire still has a lot of soft power and money can buy a lot; the nature of men is unchanged. All of the talk of the Axis of Resistance rising up, closing the Straits of Hormuz, and shuttering the economy of the world depends a lot less on the current state of demise of the GAE and has very little to do with the will of ordinary Muslim people and almost everything to do with if certain leaders in the Middle East can be bought and paid for one more time to maintain the status quo. [1]
“Ground Offensive”
So much chatter about this. It began on 26th October and none of the groups mentioned above recognized it. Well, with the exception of the Wojak Doomer bugmen who proclaimed that Israel would immediately suffer innumerable casualties and the entire Axis of Resistance was poised to unleash Jihad at that very moment, neither occurred of course. BrOSINT and grifters of various sorts took the safe route and declared it was just a raid and Israel would withdraw. [2] This was safe because of course, who could really prove if they withdrew or not and if they ended up staying summoning some non-existent doctrinal notion of driving armor in or near urban terrain and just withdrawing for the heck of it was a safe hot take.
On 17 October I wrote about an approach to urban warfare that I was uncertain the IDF possessed the skill set to execute.
“Current theories related to combat in dense urban terrain call for a more finessed approach. Ideally, the attacker sets a large cordon around a location, conducts strikes on known hard points, and then audacity, speed, and technology begin setting internal cordons around defended positions as they are found.” [3]
The events since 26 October indicate this is exactly the strategy the IDF seems to be attempting by poking around the edges of Gaza City near Beit Hanoun, Alatra, and southeast of Wahsh. Most of the terrain consists of fields, orchards, and a waddi. Most of the footage of IDF soldiers in urban terrain is in mostly rubble. Much remains to be seen. Initially I focused on the fact that the IDF is a constabulary army with little practical experience in the sort of operation clearing Gaza City would entail. I failed to account for the fact that Hamas is proficient in launching rockets but it remains to be seen if it is capable of defending ground. Right now, it is possible that the IDF might systematically “poke” into Gaza, eliminating strong points one by one and this entire conflict will remain below triggering events. It is also possible that Hamas set its defense in the interior of Gaza City where it would not be subject to long-range direct fire weapons. All we can know for certain is it seems that the IDF will establish a cordon in the coming days. The real proof of concept will follow.
But it was never a “feint” “raid” hit and run” or any of the other nonsense all the experts proclaimed several days ago and got paid by Elon for posting it and mindless masses looking at it. When IDF armor took positions inside the fence line they were not going to drive those backward only to allow Hamas to reset defenses.
“Sleeper Cells”
How many times have scaremongers proclaimed that sleeper cells were inside the US just waiting to act? Before you answer that, consider the domestic situation in the US relative to an appetite to say, invade Iran. It is low. Now imagine that attitude if an Iranian-backed sleeper cell were to do a large act of terrorism in the US. Something big, something worthy of the effort, think blowing up a dam or a power plant or a dirty bomb. Tobey Keith would write “Boot in your Ass” part two, Baptist preachers would lead congregations in the Battle Hymn of the Republic and the NYT would publish articles asking when we would have justice. In mere months the US and a hodge-podge coalition would have 500,000 troops in Iraq and the Gulf States poised to invade Iran.
What is terrorism anyway? It is a poor man’s means of war. American colonist practiced a form of it before 1776. Hebrews were terrorists to the British in Palestine before 1948. Terrorism is meant to bolster the morale of your side and demoralize your opponent. A real terrorist attack inside the US would have the absolute opposite effect. There is no strategic advantage to Iran to sanction such an act. Waking a sleeping and divided nation is not a path to victory for them. They seek to maintain the conflict below a certain threshold.
Now of course, there are those, the anime Third-Worldists above that would comment that invading Iran would merely hasten the demise of the empire. In this they are not wrong. That fact, however, does not diminish the fact that the US most likely could and would given the proper level of provocation. The death ride is not just for Prussians.
No, the “sleeper cell” grifters are just that, recyclers of the same sort of nonsense that has been Facebook-tier stupid for forty years before Facebook existed. This is not to say that somebody somewhere might not do a terror in the US. False flags are a real thing, and so are lone actors. People are individual agents and can and will act. It is just preposterous to believe that Iran would sanction such, it does not benefit them tactically or strategically.
Parting Thoughts
Social media was a terrible mistake, it just keeps getting worse! It is designed to show you what you want to see, no matter your perspective and priors and there is a ready army of dunces ready willing and able to take a few shekels to tell it to you.
The real battle is between elites. Can the GAE put MBS and Sussi in their pockets? What is Erdogan playing for? Relevance I suppose and to appease the restless masses inside of Turkey. He too wants to get paid in some way in all of this. His words sound bellicose, but unlike the accelerationists, I am unconvinced yet. This is coming from a guy who believes Turkey will one day turn its back on the West, but I am not sure that day has arrived – we will see if Western elites have something he wants.
The GAE and Western Civilization is in decline, floundering even. But history has shown floundering empires still have claws and teeth and become increasingly willing to use them and sell their mothers just to hang on. Accelerationists may end up watching in dismay as this happening becomes just another thing and the GAE seemingly prevails. Such people need to take perspective, nothing happens until something does, and even when it appears nothing happened, something did. [4] Rome did not fall in a day, but on the day it did, most did not realize it. Indian civilization fell perhaps 2500 years ago and yet something looking like it remains on the subcontinent for reasons of geography only. Take perspective.