Predictions are easy, if you make easy ones. Here is one such easy prediction. The midterms in 2022 will be “stolen”, and it does not matter who wins the end result will be that a not insignificant number of people on the losing side will call foul. Some of this relates to a growing sense of illegitimacy overall in our system.[1] It is a result in no small part of an increase in “noticing”. One wonders how much noticing is required for the illegitimacy meter to flip for the majority. Potentially, if we were all noticing a lot more we would know that there have been shenanigans to notice for a long time. Elections in 1864, 1964, 2000, 2016 and 2020 are big examples of oddities but if we worked hard to notice we might come to see that even the BoD elections for an HOA are not always pristine and that most important national elections are odd.

Power attracts corruption and the more powerful the office, well human nature is human nature. Humans, conspire, lie and cheat. We might say that democracy itself is just ripe with opportunities for nefarious actions. Maybe democracy could only work at a small scale, maybe where people individually vote and are seen. Perhaps something like a town hall in New England or a caucus in Iowa where people vote in a visible and physical way would be the answer. Wait, no, it seems even people moving to opposite ends of a gymnasium in Iowa can be tampered with to achieve the desired end. [2] And, as simple as it seems to merely count bodies standing in opposite corners and report that up, the fourth estate is capable of providing elaborate explanations as to why that is really not that simple. And, once we acknowledge the seductive nature of power and understand that groups conspire together to keep it, well the noticing takes on a new perspective.

I do not know who will be happy or sad next week, who will cry foul, and who will gloat. Logically, and according to historical precedent, the Republicans ought to gain control of the House and probably the Senate. Polls as of the present moment and for the last few weeks support that logical conclusion. A realist is less inclined to be happy either way, realizing full well that both the Republican and Democratic parties are built upon progressive ideology. Sometimes, it seems looking back at history, the powers-that-be need both manifestations of progressivism to really get things done. It could be they need the War Party right now and all that entails.

But I am unconvinced. I am not predicting a Blue Surprise, but I would not be surprised at all by that outcome. It seems to me, at some point in our ceaseless march toward progress that eventually the gloves and masks will fully come off. An ineffective “opposition” party makes sense if you believe you need to appease people and make them believe they have a voice and choice. But if the events of 2020 were real, maybe that is not required any longer.[3]

I suppose we will see, after the inevitable drama next week settles down, if the great game of pretending continues or if the masks are finally dropped and we all see precisely the system we have.