This one is interesting, and maybe telling. I have watched similar events in the past, I took them in isolation but I see this too often to be mere isolation. I observed Russian Marines conducting urban operations in the vicinity of Ugledar. They rode their infantry fighting vehicles to the objective, dismounted, and began operations. Watching them reminds me specifically of US operations in Fallujah in 2004.

 

In my observations, Russian Sea Infantry troops would occupy and clear a building. They would isolate and draw fire from a Ukrainian position in another building then they would either use squad maneuvers to bring a heavy weapon up to engage the position or call for fire from an indirect fire weapon system. This sort of work is slow and ponderous, but effective. Each enemy position is identified, isolated, and eliminated one by one. In Fallujah, the US took ridiculously low casualties for an urban offensive operation. History says it should be bloody, but if your opponent is reduced to dead-ended hidey hole defenses, well he is merely waiting for you to find him and kill him.

 

This does not explain the entire way in which the war is being fought. It does explain what is clearly an odd ratio between Russian and Ukrainian casualties, especially considering Russia has been on the offensive much more of this war.

 

“Maginot Part Deux”

 

Imagery does seem to indicate that Russia is digging in and establishing fortifications along the line depicted above. I have seen some laughing that ‘the Maginot did not work and this just means one has to go through Belgium' (Belarus)  Some people see this all as a sports game with teams and their minds have been so broken they do not even understand the analogy they are making when they say a thing like that.

 

Russia is not stopping and establishing a new international border along the line depicted in the graphic above. It cannot stop there now, for strategic and operational reasons. I think it would be wise to stop there and wait for the next round of “wonder weapons” to arrive from the West and let the Ukrainians throw those tanks against these fortifications. This seems to match the Russian strategic patience demonstrated in the past.

 

Leopards

 

I recall all the internet laughter when Russia pulled T-62s out of stocks and sent them to Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers probably did not laugh when it became obvious that Russia was not sending them to replace real tanks, but rather to assign them as infantry support guns.

 

The T-62 is of course the same generation tank as the Leopard 1. Too old to be a main battle tank. Ukraine received 88 Leopard 1s last month, not a game changer and not even really a MBT now. The New York Times reported recently that Europe will have a hard time finding all the Leopard 2s Ukraine was promised. This is all about nothing, a handful of old tanks and a smattering of less old models.

 

 

Assessment

 

This is a bloody mess. If I were to venture to think I can understand what I cannot fully know, I would say that Putin's strategy was the reverse of the thing people claim ended the Cold War. You often hear that Reagan spent the Soviets into the grave, but this is not exactly true, if anything ruined the USSR it was Chernobyl. But the idea stands. If tactical footage from Ugledar tells us the truth of reality on the ground we find an army of conscripts told to hold positions being systematically sent out of this world by professional soldiers. If that is happening at scale, it explains a lot in terms of pace and timing.

 

God bless and receive the young man that stands a post as a dead-ender while determined killers surround him. I felt the same for guys in Fallujah that dug their own graves and were determined to fight and die there in a hopeless last effort. Shame on us for prolonging this misery.

 

I assess that Putin pushes as far and in the most kinetic way possible that will not demand a Western response. He has not turned off all the electricity in winter or carpet-bombed Kiev. Russia tolerated FORTE 10/11 poking around. I think this is a war of resources and will. Russia has calculated how many rounds it can make per month, what remains to be seen is how many billions can the West afford. I am not saying Putin is a genius, but we can almost discern his strategy if we look and it is brilliant.

 

Ukraine has no hope of winning this if by winning we mean emerging without being destroyed. The West could perhaps win it for them but that would involve steps I am not sure are possible (I am not speaking of some crazed ideas of military action). If Ukraine received all the modern weapons required to mount a broad offensive it would still be an offensive, it would not look like the ponderous house-to-house clearing we see from the Russian side. It would be bloody like all offensives generally are by historical standards. There are many nuances in what I just said and much I did not say.

 

My assessment has not changed from the period right after Russia tried the Shock without the Awe to end it all early in 2022. It is a game of patience, resolve, will, and resources now. Nobody is winning this right now, and the only losers at this point are the dead and homeless.  But, I think Russia may have a stronger hand to play in the long game.

 

If I had to venture a prediction. This conflict will remain without a winner and will play a part in the narrative of complete failure that dominates the 2024 US election cycle. This conflict will not be resolved any earlier than 2025 and many will die in the interim. If it ends before 2024, my assumption is that it will be a clear Russian victory. That too would play into a narrative of failure and the 'need' for a savior hero in 2024.