We are in the midst of a cultural revolution. The culture of traditional America is being replaced by something else, read Gramsci. The objectives, erase history, replace history, the lie becomes the truth, ‘control the past you control the future’, power and control, impose new culture on top of old
Nobody, even the organizers of various extremist groups can control everything nor everyone. It is possible a lone wolf could act. It is possible one of the domestic extremist groups may decide to act in some profound way. It is even possible (but unlikely) a foreign actor could coordinate such an event.
The assassination of one of the presidential candidates, a mass shooting in a church (black or white) some other mass death/shooting type event – any of that has the potential to make all the assessment below pointless. Such an event, that drives the right emotions to escalate violence and counter-violence to levels thus far unseen. I will leave such events there, catastrophic events that would completely upset the current dynamic.
Across Europe, in Britain specifically, we see protests that are increasingly turning violent. Much of Europe was already sitting on a demographic powder keg. If this escalates, Europe is on its own and will likely not fare well. The economic impact of a tumultuous and disintegrating Europe will only serve to exacerbate problems elsewhere.
China has taken firm steps since February to advance its strategic objectives. The Basic Law in Hong Kong is suspended and no more, autonomy is gone forever. All of the dissenters in Hong Kong that lead protests and spoke out have been systematically rounded up and arrested. China is now free from all talk about Uighurs concentration camps, religious prosecution, and the origin of COVID-19. The US has no moral high ground to stand on when our own preachers and celebrities claim that the US government is conducting racial genocide.
China, a nation that often acts like a 20th-century great power, invaded Indian territory high in the Himalayans last week, in an effort to straighten lines and regress past differences of opinion.
Chinese application of soft power (Belt and Road, port upgrades, etc.) continues unabated and are aided by American weakness. It is likely, I suspect that in the near-term China will apply more pressure in the South China Sea, likely against the Philippines and fishing rights. Nothing overt but definitely something more aggressive.
It is unlikely, for many reasons, that Chinese foreign intelligence services will take anything more than a back-seat approach to current troubles in the US. The mosaic of chaos is not well developed enough for them to act much at all without detection.
However, if one of the outliers above pressed the mosaic passed a tipping point, it is very likely Chinese foreign service agents would act quickly to leverage the situation. Such an event would escalate quickly, with Foreign agents supporting extremists on all sides of the spectrum to engulf the US in violence.
Famine is almost a certainty in Africa this year. Given the locust storms earlier this year and a dry spring organic food production was already low and required international assistance. That assistance may not be as forthcoming this year. Famine often breeds crises and many areas in Africa are already poised to blow up. The West will likely be unprepared/unable to mount any major assistance efforts (humanitarian or military). Africa is on its own this year. (actually, this situation might greatly benefit China and allow them greater in-roads to the continent)
Likely Enemy Objectives: Pressure points [efforts by organizations behind the effort, BLM etc.]
(Most Likely) Maintain momentum, carry-through to the election, build allies, identify resisters, dismantle power structures. (Least Likely) Increase the mosaic of chaos, force a counter-reaction, leverage counterreaction into an insurgency.
Knowns (Assumed): organized efforts toward protest will continue only insofar as it is necessary to maintain momentum.
Unknowns: No organization controls the crowd or the emotion of crowds, not all is controllable.
Short-term efforts will now be focused on 1) solidifying relationships with new ‘allies’ 2) building momentum toward elections (elections remain a source of progressive advance) 3) leveraging events as they occur to maintain momentum.
COVID-19: If it turns out that COVID-19 is as deadly and contagious as we are told we should expect a tremendous spike in cases in a couple of weeks. Will that drive more shutdowns of businesses? Will Americans submit and comply this time? If so can the economy sustain that?
Conventions and election: Both the Democratic and Republican conventions present enormous targets of opportunity for an outlier event/attack. Such an event would imperil the conduct of an election and result in confabulation.
The 2020 election will be devastating for conservatism. No Republican that stands for any conservative principle is safe. Many non-conservative Republicans are not safe, I suspect many luke-warm progressives are also in peril of losing their seats. Donald Trump will not be reelected.
In the aftermath of the election legislation related to police, reform will certainly pass in many areas, probably even on a national level. This will not be ‘defunding of the police’, it will be reorganizing the police, in a reactionary and poorly considered manner. Think back to the formation of the TSA, the requirement to hire people by preferred characteristics. Think of police departments given mandates to have zero incidents of behavior termed abusive. Think of the impossibility of crafting an organization that deals with violent people that is authorized to use violence and is restricted in its hiring process being capable of doing its job in any manner approaching competence.
(Highly Likely) Donald Trump loses in a landslide, the Senate flips and the Democratic majority in the House expands.
(Highly Unlikely) Trump is re-elected: Results in riots, looting, and violence will commence immediately.
Culturally: Expect to see an increase in the frequency, velocity, and voracity of persons and careers for nonconformity.
The election of Biden equates to Year Zero – the masses and the organizations behind the angst on the street will expect that the destructions of the institutions, power structures, and culture will exponentially accelerate. The Democratic core, as progressive and liberal as it is, does not seek that radical of a solution. Frustration and more angst will build soon after Biden’s election, particularly because now the radicals will lose all hope in any democratic solution. Their anger toward old Democrats will eclipse that toward Trump and there will be nothing that old folks like Biden and Pelosi can do to stem it.
Geopolitics: The election of Biden will represent a restoration of the status quo, internationally. Chinese overt acts in the South China Sea in the few months following November and will revert back to soft power efforts. The demise of the power of the West will appear to have returned to the slow-roll demise. This will appear to be a return to stability, soon to disappear, and the radical turn on Biden and take to the streets.
Police reform: As it will likely occur, will not have the effect either conservatives or liberals predict. Many large cities, gutted of their current force, one replaced with different faces and different priorities will not, as conservatives predict, force the residents to ‘see the light’. Small business owners and hard-working Americans will be forced to choose, stay in a city that will not protect them or leave. For many, those that perceive less police oppression, will not bemoan the fact that jobs have left and crime has increased. The tribalism of the sort that marked territory and forms alliances will prevail. Rising crime will only be perceived as a problem for those that do not affiliate. The lack of jobs and opportunity will remain a problem attached to “the government”. This reform will ultimately satisfy nobody, those focused on power politics will still rail against the fact that people in the suburbs are happy.
No Later Than 2022: Impatience and angst over the failure of the government to meet the expectations of the revolution. Monuments have not come down fast enough, ‘hateful’ books are not repressed enough, too many ‘hateful’ people still find a way to have a voice, too much inequity in property still exists, dangerous racist still has guns.
We do not make it out of 2022 without:
- The current government being replaced in form and structure by a radical Marxist regime make up of a coalition of extreme elements in a tenuous alliance that is bound to unravel into violence. This could occur much easier than we imagine, pressure and violence in the street could result in Biden simply conceding power to a new “Committee”. (Most Likely)
- States and regions resisting such a move by the Federal government, resulting in a combination of regional and civil war. (Likely [the success of some states in pulling this off is moderate])
- If Trump wins re-election the nation will face immediate chaos and violence in the street. The only way the U.S. remains intact then involves fighting an insurrection and piecing things back together in some Lincolnian sort of way. (Unlikely)
- Patriots rise up and take the country back amidst the chaos. (Highly Unlikely [There may be such an effort but the likelihood of success is slim for many reasons])
- God has a plan (only He knows)